过度自信的研究展望

心理与行为研究 ›› 2009, Vol. 7 ›› Issue (3): 236-240.

• 论文 • 上一篇

过度自信的研究展望

周爱保,赵鑫

西北师范大学心理学系,兰州 730070; 北京师范大学心理学院,应用实验心理北京市重点实验室,北京 100875

收稿日期:2008-11-28 出版日期:2009-09-20 发布日期:2015-01-21
作者简介:周爱保,男,西北师范大学教育学院教授,博士生导师。Email：zhouab@nwnu.edu.cn。

THE REVIEW AND PROSPECT OF OVERCONFIDENCE

Zhou Aibao,Zhao Xin

Department of Psychology, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070; Beijing Key Lab of Applied Experimental Psychology, School of Psychology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875

Received:2008-11-28 Online:2009-09-20 Published:2015-01-21

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 过度自信是个体高估自身判断精确度的一种认知偏差。过高估计和过高定位作为过度自信的两种主要类型被认为是个体在评价其绝对能力和相对能力时的表现。一般认为信息加工的偏差与判断误差的无偏性是造成过高估计的主要原因。自我提升动机、权重差异与信息的差异被认为是产生过高定位的原因。但是过度自信的这两种类型却在不同难度的任务中出现了分离现象。最近,研究者提出了贝叶斯过度自信,用贝叶斯推理对不同任务中二者的分离进行了整合。过度自信产生的原因和内在心理机制、过度自信对决策的影响以及过度自信中的个体差异研究将会成为该领域日后研究的趋势。

关键词: 过度自信, 过高估计, 过高定位, "简单-困难"效应, 贝叶斯推理

Abstract: Overconfidence is a cognitive bias in which people overestimate their own accuracy. Overestimate and overplacement are considered as two central types of overconfidence occurred when individual assess his/her absolute ability and relative ability. In general, biases in information processing and effects of unbiased judgmental error are considered as the main reasons for overconfidence. Reasons for overplacement including motivation of self-enhancement, differential weighting and differential information have been considered. But those two types of overconfidence present separate phenomena in tasks with different difficulties. Recently, Bayesian overconfidence is put forward. The separations of two types of overconfidence in tasks with different difficulties are integrated by using Bayesian inference. The reason and internal psychological mechanism of overconfidence, the influence of overconfidence on decision-making, also the individual differences research in overconfidence will be the focus of this field in the future.

Key words: overconfidence, overestimation, overplacement, Hard-easy effect, Bayesian inference

中图分类号:

B848.4

周爱保,赵鑫. 过度自信的研究展望[J]. 心理与行为研究, 2009, 7(3): 236-240.

Zhou Aibao,Zhao Xin. THE REVIEW AND PROSPECT OF OVERCONFIDENCE[J]. Studies of Psychology and Behavior, 2009, 7(3): 236-240.

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过度自信的研究展望

THE REVIEW AND PROSPECT OF OVERCONFIDENCE

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