不确定性容忍度对模糊决策中决策偏好的影响及其情景依赖性*

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 研究以Ellsberg选瓶任务为决策材料，探讨了不同任务特征下个体不确定性容忍度对模糊决策中决策偏好的影响。结果发现，获益情景下:高概率时高、低容忍度个体对模糊选项的选择无显著差异，均偏好模糊规避;中概率时低容忍度个体比高容忍度个体表现出更低程度的模糊规避，前者倾向于模糊中立，后者倾向于模糊规避;低概率时两者对模糊选项的选择无显著差异，均倾向于模糊中立。损失情景下:高概率时两者对模糊选项的选择无显著差异，均倾向于模糊寻求;中概率时低容忍度比高容忍度个体更偏好模糊寻求，前者倾向于模糊寻求，后者倾向于模糊中立;低概率时两者对模糊选项的选择无显著差异，均倾向于模糊规避。这表明，不确定性容忍度对模糊决策偏好产生作用，但这种作用会受到损益概率和损益结果的影响，具有情景依赖性。

关键词: 不确定性容忍度, 决策偏好, 模糊规避, 损益概率, 个体差异

Abstract: This research investigated the influences of tolerance of uncertainty(TU) and other variables on decision preference in ambiguity decision-making. The results showed that when the probability was large or small, there was no difference between the high and low TU groups in choosing the ambiguous urn whether in the gain condition or in the loss condition. When the probability was large, they were both trend to avoid ambiguity in the gain condition and switched to seek ambiguity in the loss condition. When the probability was small, they were both subject to be ambiguity neutral in the gain condition and switched to avoid ambiguity in the loss condition. The participants with low TU showed significantly less ambiguity aversion compared with ones with high TU when probability of gain events was moderate, The former was ambiguity neutral, but the latter was ambiguity aversion; The participants with low TU were more likely to seek ambiguity compared with ones with high TU when probability of loss events was moderate, The former was ambiguity seeking, but the latter was ambiguity neutral. Taken together, these findings indicated that TU could influence ambiguity preferences and the influence was context-dependent.

Key words: tolerance of uncertainty, decision preference, ambiguity aversion, probability levels, individual differences

中图分类号:

B842.5

黄仁辉，曾晓青，李文虎. 不确定性容忍度对模糊决策中决策偏好的影响及其情景依赖性^*[J]. 心理与行为研究, 2014, 12(3): 377-383.

Huang Renhui,Zeng Xiaoqing,Li Wenhu. The Effects of Tolerance of Uncertainty on Decision Preference in Ambiguity Decision-Making and its Context-Dependency[J]. Studies of Psychology and Behavior, 2014, 12(3): 377-383.

参考文献

李志勇,吴明证,陶伶,何雪莲.(2012). 大学生自尊、无法忍受不确定性、职业决策困难与就业焦虑的关系.中国临床心理学杂志,20(4),564-566.
史滋福.(2009). 模糊决策的情境依赖性. 心理学探新,29(2), 30-32.
张凤华.(2010). 模糊决策中决策偏好的情景依赖性. 博士学位论文. 重庆:西南大学.
张军伟,徐富明,刘腾飞,陈雪玲,蒋多.(2010). 概率大小、损益结果和认知闭合需要对模糊规避的影响.应用心理学,16(3), 218-224.
Abdellaoui, M., Baillon, A., Placido, L., & Wakker, P. (2011). The rich domain of uncertainty:Source functions and their experimental implementation. The American Economic Review, 101, 695-723.
Bier,V.M., & Connell, B. L. (1994). Ambiguity seeking in multi-attribute decisions: Effects of optimism and message framing. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 7, 169-182 .
Buhr, K., & Dugas, M. J. (2002). The intolerance of uncertainty scale:Psychometric properties of the English version. Behaviour Research and Therapy, 40, 931-945.
Bredemeier, K., & Berenbaum, H. (2008). Intolerance of uncertainty and perceived threat.Behaviour Research and Therapy, 46, 28-38.
Camerer, C., & Weber, M. (1992). Recent developments in modeling preferences:Uncertainty and ambiguity. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 5, 325-370.
Carleton, R. N., Norton, P. J., & Asmundson, G. J.J. (2007). Fearing the unknown: A short version of the Intolerance of Uncertainty Scale. Journal of Anxiety Disorders, 21(1), 105-117.
Cohen, M., Jaffray, J.Y., & Said. T. (1987). Experimental comparison of individual behavior under risk and under uncertainty for gains and for losses. Organizational Behavior And Human Decision Processes, 39, l-22.
De Bruin, G. O., Rassin, E., & Muris, P. ( 2006). Worry in the lab: Does intolerance of uncertainty have predictive value? Behavior Change, 23, 138-147.
Dugas, M. J., Freeston, M. H., & Ladouceur, R. (1997). Intolerance of uncertainty and problem orientation in worry. Cognitive Therapy and Research, 21, 593-606.
Dugas, M. J., Hedayati, M., Karavidas, A., Buhr, K., Francies, K., & Phillips, N. A. (2005).Intolerance of uncertainty and information processing: Evidence of biased recall and interpretations. Cognitive Therapy and Research, 29, 57-70.
Dugas, M. J., Marchand, A., & Ladouceur, R. (2005). Further validation of a cognitive-behavioral model of generalized anxiety disorder: Diagnostic and symptom specificity.Journal of Anxiety Disorders, 19(3), 329-343.
Einhorn, H. J., & Hogarth, R. M. (1985). Ambiguity and uncertainty in probabilistic inference. Psychological review, 92, 433-461.
Ellsberg, D. (1961). Risk, ambiguity, and the Savage axioms.Quarterly Journal of Economics, 75, 643-669.
Freeston, M. H., Rheaume, J., Letarte, H., Dugas, M. J., & Ladouceur, R. (1994). Why do people worry?Personality and Individual Differences, 17, 791-802.
Gehring, W. J., & Willoughby, A. R. (2002). The medial frontal cortex and the rapid processing of monetary gains and losses. Science, 295, 2279-2282.
Ghosh, D., & Ray, M.R. (1997). Risk, ambiguity and decision choice: some additional evidence. Decision Sciences, 28, 81-104.
Khawaja, N. G., & Yu, L. N. H. (2010). A comparison of the 27-item and 12-item intolerance of uncertainty scales.Clinical Psychologist, 14, 97-106.
Khberger, A., & Perner, J.(2003). The role of competition and knowledge in the Ellsberg task. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 16, 181-191.
Klein , W. M. P., Cerully, J. L., & Monin, M. M. (2010). Ability, chance, and ambiguity aversion: Revisiting the competence hypothesis. Judgment and Decision Making, 5, 192-199.
Knight, F. H. (1921). Risk, uncertainty, and profit. Boston: Houghton, Schaffner & Marx.
Ladouceur, R. , Gosselin, P., & Dugas, M. J. (2000).Experimental manipulation of intolerance of uncertainty:A study of a theoretical model of worry. Behaviour Research and Therapy, 38, 933-941.
Ladouceur, R., Talbot, F., & Dugas, M. J. (1997). Behavioral expressions of intolerance of uncertainty in worry: Experimental findings. Behavioral Modification, 21(3), 355-371.
Lauriola, M., Levin, I. P., & Hart, S. S. (2007). Common and distinct factors in decision making under ambiguity and risk: A psychometric study of individual differences. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 104, 130-149.
Liang, K. Y., & Zeger, S. L. (1986). Longitudinal data analysis using generalized linear models. Biometrika, 73(1), 13-22.
Liu, H. H. (2011). Impact of regulatory focus on ambiguity aversion. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 24(4), 412-430.
Liu, H. H., & Colman, A. M. (2009). Ambiguity aversion in the long run: Repeated decisions under risk and uncertainty.Journal of Economic Psychology, 30, 277-284.
Luhmann, C. C., Ishida, K., & Hajcak, G. (2011). Intolerance of uncertainty and decisions about delayed, probabilistic rewards. Behavior Therapy, 42, 378-386.
McEvoy, P. M., & Mahoney, A. E. J. (2012).To be sure, to be sure: Intolerance of uncertainty mediates symptoms of various anxiety disorders and depression. Behavior Therapy, 43, 533-545.
McLain, D. L. (1993). The MSTAT-I: A new measure of an individuals tolerance for ambiguity. Educational and Psychological Measurement, 53, 83-89.
Pontikes, E. G. (2012). Two sides of the same coin: How ambiguous classification affects multiple audiences’ evaluations. Administrative Science Quarterly, 57, 81-118.
Pulford, B. D. (2009). Is Luck onmy side? Optimism, pessimism, and ambiguity aversion. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 62, 1079-1087.
Ravaja, N., Somervuori, O., & Salminen, M. (2013). Predicting purchase decision: The role of hemispheric asymmetry over the frontal cortex. Journal of Neuroscience, Psychology, and Economics, 6(1), 1-13.
Rosen, N.O., Knuper, B., & Sammut, J. (2007). Do individual differences in intolerance of uncertainty affect health monitoring? Psychology and Health, 22, 413-430.
Rubaltelli, E., Rumiati, R., & Slovic, P. (2010). Do ambiguity avoidance and the comparative ignorance hypothesis depend on people’s affective reactions?Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 40,243-254.
Trautmann, S. T., Vieider, F. M., & Wakker, P. P. (2008). Causes of ambiguity aversion: Known versus unknown preferences. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 36,225-243.
Zvolensky, M. J.,Vujanovic, A.A., Bernstein, A., & Leyro, T. (2010). Distress tolerance: Theory, measurement, and relations to psychopathology. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 19, 406-410.

[1]	康廷虎, 王旎撰, 高吴平. 记叙文阅读中主人公转换对情境模型更新的影响[J]. 心理与行为研究, 2020, 18(1): 1-7.
[2]	倪亚琨, 赵君哲, 李巧灵, 郭腾飞, 王明辉. 高低拖延者的跨期选择差异：基于ERP的研究[J]. 心理与行为研究, 2019, 17(6): 831-839.
[3]	王婷, 王丹, 张积家. 双语与双言影响心理理论内隐系统与外显系统的分离[J]. 心理与行为研究, 2019, 17(4): 442-451.
[4]	刘志方, 陈朝阳, 仝文, 苏衡. 阅读中词汇识别依赖词内字序编码的阶段性特点：眼动证据[J]. 心理与行为研究, 2019, 17(3): 304-310.
[5]	陈宝国, 张媛玥, 马腾飞. 高限制性句子语境条件下词汇接触次数和二语熟练度对词汇习得的影响[J]. 心理与行为研究, 2019, 17(2): 153-159.
[6]	孙尔鸿, 张启睿, 张积家. 书法字体与汉字颜色在成语重要性加工中的作用[J]. 心理与行为研究, 2019, 17(2): 160-169.
[7]	郝海平, 范宁. 反应模式对时间空间一致性效应的影响[J]. 心理与行为研究, 2019, 17(2): 178-184.
[8]	潘颖, 邓小平, 林正军, 刘岩. 中国学生英语语音意识与英语阅读成绩关系的元分析[J]. 心理与行为研究, 2019, 17(2): 229-239.
[9]	赵帅, 鹿士义, 陈婧, 逯芝璇, 匡柳兴, 邓彧君, 付宸. 母语为韩语的汉语学习者加工“V+N1+的+N2”歧义结构的眼动研究[J]. 心理与行为研究, 2019, 17(1): 15-23.
[10]	于秒, 丁潼飞. 汉语词汇识别的声调时长效应[J]. 心理与行为研究, 2019, 17(1): 24-30.
[11]	赵冰洁, 王永胜, 陈茗静, 李馨, 闫国利, 白学军. 双字词整词加工与词素加工在眼跳目标选择中的作用[J]. 心理与行为研究, 2018, 16(6): 721-734.
[12]	赵黎明, 廉园, 李卫君. 口语句子产生中词汇选择的计划单元：来自大中小学生的比较研究[J]. 心理与行为研究, 2018, 16(6): 735-743.
[13]	季雨竹, 张逸玮, 毕鸿燕. 汉语发展性阅读障碍儿童的视觉大细胞-背侧通路功能[J]. 心理与行为研究, 2018, 16(5): 577-582.
[14]	张曼莉, 孟祥芝, 郑小蓓. 中文阅读障碍儿童的时间加工缺陷:来自知觉学习干预研究的证据[J]. 心理与行为研究, 2018, 16(5): 583-593,623.
[15]	白学军, 张明哲, 孟红霞, 谭珂, 王雯. 词边界信息对发展性阅读障碍儿童朗读和默读影响的眼动研究[J]. 心理与行为研究, 2018, 16(5): 594-602.

不确定性容忍度对模糊决策中决策偏好的影响及其情景依赖性^*

The Effects of Tolerance of Uncertainty on Decision Preference in Ambiguity Decision-Making and its Context-Dependency

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 15

编辑推荐

Metrics

本文评价