Abstract: Utility theory (Markowitz,1952) and three reference-point theory (Wang,2002) proved that people held a fourfold pattern of risk attitudes, namely risk seeking for small gains and risk aversion for small losses; risk aversion for large gains and risk seeking for large losses,which meant that there were three reference points when people made decisions. The two theories gave a more accurate description of individual behavior under risk than prospect theory,but they still took absolute value of gains and losses as reference points. In the current study,it was hypothesized and verified that in the evaluation phase the value taken into consideration was relative to wealth named payoff rate and there did exist three reference points. The three points divided the value function into four parts as gain area,non-gain area,loss area and non-loss area. When the gain was higher than gain point or the loss was lower than loss point,the decision principle was the same as prospect theory. Otherwise the value function of the concave and convex reversed,which meant people were risk seeking for gains and risk aversion for loses. Decision-maker did evaluation after the framing phase.

Key words: prospect theory, value function, risk decision making, risk payoff rate model

摘要： 通过对159名在校大学生进行测验,探讨了被试风险决策的模式,指出展望理论的局限性,建立了更加具有解释效力的风险损益率模型。该模型认为人们对价值的判断会受到先前财富的影响,并且个体在决策时会考虑中性参照点、收益点和损失点,当收益高于收益点与损失低于损失点时,个体的决策判断原则与展望理论相同;在收益点与损失点之间时,决策的价值函数的凹凸性发生反转,表现出对收益的风险追求和对损失的风险规避。

关键词: 展望理论, 价值函数, 风险决策, 风险损益率