未来情景思维对金钱跨期决策的影响—来自三水平元分析的证据

doi:10.12139/j.1672-0628.2024.05.017

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

采用三水平元分析技术探究未来情景思维(episodic future thinking, EFT)对金钱领域跨期决策的影响及调节变量。对纳入的46篇文献，89个效应量进行分析发现，相比控制组，EFT组更加偏好延迟奖励(g=0.50)。此外，EFT与金钱跨期决策的关系受到EFT效价、生动性、个人相关性等变量的调节。本研究揭示了EFT影响金钱跨期决策的内在机制，并证实EFT个人相关性对该关系的解释力，为跨期决策的干预提供了参考依据。

关键词: 未来情景思维, 金钱跨期决策, 三水平元分析, 调节效应

Abstract:

This meta-analysis used a three-level meta-analysis technique to explore the influence of episodic future thinking (EFT) on intertemporal decision making in the money field and the moderating variables. A total of 89 effect sizes in 46 literatures were analyzed. The results showed that the EFT group preferred delayed rewards more than the control group (g = 0.50). In addition, the role of EFT on money intertemporal decision making was moderated by EFT valence, vividness, personally relevant and other variables. This study reveals the internal mechanism about EFT valence on intertemporal decision making, and confirms the role of EFT personal relevant on this relationship, which provides the basis to intervene intertemporal decision making.

Key words: episodic future thinking, intertemporal decision making, three-level meta-analysis, moderating effect

成子涵, 毕翠华, 吴琪. 未来情景思维对金钱跨期决策的影响—来自三水平元分析的证据[J]. 心理与行为研究, 2024, 22(5): 704-712.

Zihan CHENG, Cuihua BI, Qi WU. The Impact of Episodic Future Thinking on Money Intertemporal Decision Making: Evidence from Three-Level Meta-Analysis[J]. Studies of Psychology and Behavior, 2024, 22(5): 704-712.

图/表 2

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调节变量	k	#ES	Intercept/Hedges’g	β₁	F	p	研究内方差	研究间方差
样本特征
平均年龄	44	85		−0.002(−0.01, 0.01)	0.12	0.726	0.14***	0.10***
性别比例	44	85		0.03(−0.66, 0.72)	0.01	0.929	0.13**	0.06***
特殊人群					0.47	0.703	0.16**	0.10***
健康	27	63	0.46(0.29, 0.64)***
肥胖	7	9	0.65(0.26, 1.05)**	0.19(−0.24, 0.62)
吸烟者	6	8	0.41(0.01, 0.80)*	−0.06(−0.49, 0.38)
其他	7	9	0.61(0.22, 1.01)**	0.15(−0.29, 0.59)
地域文化					0.80	0.373	0.16**	0.08***
东方	10	33	0.39(0.12, 0.66)**
西方	36	56	0.53(0.37, 0.69)***	0.14(−0.17, 0.45)
控制任务特征
情景类型					1.71	0.170	0.16*	0.07***
特定事件	27	36	0.61(0.42, 0.80)***
无关事件	6	8	0.45(0.05, 0.85)*	−0.16(−0.60, 0.27)
无操作	12	40	0.29(0.06, 0.53)*	−0.32(−0.62, 0.02)*
其他	5	5	0.70(0.20, 1.20)**	0.09(−0.43, 0.61)
实验任务特征
生动性	16	40		0.98(−0.01, 1.97)	4.01	0.052	0.19	0.47***
个人相关性	10	32		1.05(0.47, 1.64)***	13.43	<0.001	0.13***	1.09***
任务效价	13	37		0.41(0.28, 0.53)***	42.38	<0.001	0.07**	0.54***
唤醒程度	8	21		0.93(−0.21, 2.07)	2.94	0.103	0.39	1.37***
情景类型					0.45	0.642	0.16**	0.09***
未来相关事件	41	80	0.49(0.34, 0.64)***
健康事件	3	5	0.40(−0.12, 0.92)	−0.09(−0.62, 0.44)
其他	3	4	0.78(0.13, 1.42)*	0.29(−0.37, 0.95)

调节变量	k	#ES	Intercept/Hedges’g	β₁	F	p	研究内方差	研究间方差
样本特征
平均年龄	44	85		−0.002(−0.01, 0.01)	0.12	0.726	0.14***	0.10***
性别比例	44	85		0.03(−0.66, 0.72)	0.01	0.929	0.13**	0.06***
特殊人群					0.47	0.703	0.16**	0.10***
健康	27	63	0.46(0.29, 0.64)***
肥胖	7	9	0.65(0.26, 1.05)**	0.19(−0.24, 0.62)
吸烟者	6	8	0.41(0.01, 0.80)*	−0.06(−0.49, 0.38)
其他	7	9	0.61(0.22, 1.01)**	0.15(−0.29, 0.59)
地域文化					0.80	0.373	0.16**	0.08***
东方	10	33	0.39(0.12, 0.66)**
西方	36	56	0.53(0.37, 0.69)***	0.14(−0.17, 0.45)
控制任务特征
情景类型					1.71	0.170	0.16*	0.07***
特定事件	27	36	0.61(0.42, 0.80)***
无关事件	6	8	0.45(0.05, 0.85)*	−0.16(−0.60, 0.27)
无操作	12	40	0.29(0.06, 0.53)*	−0.32(−0.62, 0.02)*
其他	5	5	0.70(0.20, 1.20)**	0.09(−0.43, 0.61)
实验任务特征
生动性	16	40		0.98(−0.01, 1.97)	4.01	0.052	0.19	0.47***
个人相关性	10	32		1.05(0.47, 1.64)***	13.43	<0.001	0.13***	1.09***
任务效价	13	37		0.41(0.28, 0.53)***	42.38	<0.001	0.07**	0.54***
唤醒程度	8	21		0.93(−0.21, 2.07)	2.94	0.103	0.39	1.37***
情景类型					0.45	0.642	0.16**	0.09***
未来相关事件	41	80	0.49(0.34, 0.64)***
健康事件	3	5	0.40(−0.12, 0.92)	−0.09(−0.62, 0.44)
其他	3	4	0.78(0.13, 1.42)*	0.29(−0.37, 0.95)

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