The Impact of the Affect Heuristic on Risky Choice

doi:10.12139/j.1672-0628.2022.03.006

Abstract

Abstract: This study aimed to examine the effect of the affect heuristic on risky choices. Study 1 revised the Chinese version of the affect heuristic questionnaire based on the data of 687 college students online and offline, to use the risk-benefit correlation coefficient of this questionnaire as a measure of affect heuristic tendency. One hundred and three college students participated in study 2 who were required to complete the Affect Heuristic Questionnaire. Based on the absolute value of risk-benefit correlation coefficients, participants that ranked in either the top 20% or the bottom 20% were allocated into the high and low affect heuristic groups separately. The two groups were then required to complete a risky choice task. Results showed that: 1) The Chinese version of the Affect Heuristic Questionnaire had good reliability and validity and could be used as a test questionnaire to test affect heuristic tendency. 2) When the risky choice task activated negative emotions, participants with high affect heuristic tendency were more susceptible to negative emotions and had a higher subjective value of risk judgment compared to those with low affect heuristic tendency. The study reveals the impact of the affect heuristic on risky choices and provides empirical support for the importance of the affect heuristic as a basis for individuals to make risky judgments.

Key words: affect heuristic, risky choice, reliability and validity

摘要： 本研究旨在考察情感启发式对风险选择的影响。研究1采用线上和线下结合的方式对687名大学生进行问卷施测，修订并检验中文版情感启发式问卷的信效度，以该问卷测试的风险−收益相关系数作为衡量情感启发式倾向的指标。研究2采用极端被试法，在103名大学生完成问卷后，将风险−收益相关系数绝对值前20%和后20%的被试分为高、低情感启发式组，完成风险选择任务。结果发现：（1）中文版情感启发式问卷具有较好的信度与效度，可以作为情感启发式倾向的测试问卷。（2）风险选择任务激活负性情绪时，相比于低情感启发式倾向，高情感启发式倾向的被试更容易受负性情绪的影响，其风险判断的主观值更高。研究揭示了情感启发式对风险选择的影响，为情感启发式作为个体进行风险判断的重要依据提供了实证支持。

关键词: 情感启发式, 风险选择, 信效度

CLC Number:

B842

MIAO Xiuying, CHI Lizhong. The Impact of the Affect Heuristic on Risky Choice[J]. Studies of Psychology and Behavior, 2022, 20(3): 325-331.

苗秀影, 迟立忠. 情感启发式对风险选择的影响[J]. 心理与行为研究, 2022, 20(3): 325-331.

References

艾炎, 胡竹菁. (2018). 推理判断中双重加工过程的协作与转换机制. 心理科学进展, 26(10), 1794–1806
陈海贤, 何贵兵. (2011). 识解水平对跨期选择和风险选择的影响. 心理学报, 43(4), 442–452
李海军, 徐富明, 王伟, 相鹏, 罗寒冰. (2014). 判断与决策中的情感启发式. 心理科学, 37(5), 1238–1244
苗秀影, 曹立智, 迟立忠. (2022). 教练员−运动员关系对训练比赛满意感的影响: 领悟社会支持的中介作用. 中国临床心理学杂志, 30(1), 149–152, 156.
孙彦, 李纾, 殷晓莉. (2007). 决策与推理的双系统——启发式系统和分析系统. 心理科学进展, 15(5), 721–726
Connor, M., & Siegrist, M. (2016). The stability of risk and benefit perceptions: A longitudinal study assessing the perception of biotechnology. Journal of Risk Research, 19(4), 461–475, doi: 10.1080/13669877.2014.988169.
Dohle, S., Keller, C., & Siegrist, M. (2010). Examining the relationship between affect and implicit associations: Implications for risk perception. Risk Analysis, 30(7), 1116–1128, doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01404.x.
Evans, J. St. B. T. (2006). The heuristic-analytic theory of reasoning: Extension and evaluation. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 13(3), 378–395, doi: 10.3758/bf03193858.
Evans, J. St. B. T. (2007). On the resolution of conflict in dual process theories of reasoning. Thinking & Reasoning, 13(4), 321–339, doi: 10.1080/13546780601008825.
Evans, J. St. B. T. (2008). Dual-processing accounts of reasoning, judgment, and social cognition. Annual Review of Psychology, 59(1), 255–278, doi: 10.1146/annurev.psych.59.103006.093629.
Faul, F., Erdfelder, E., Lang, A. G., & Buchner, A. (2007). G*Power 3: A flexible statistical power analysis program for the social, behavioral, and biomedical sciences. Behavior Research Methods, 39(2), 175–191, doi: 10.3758/bf03193146.
Finucane, M. L., Alhakami, A., Slovic, P., & Johnson, S. M. (2000). The affect heuristic in judgments of risks and benefits. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 13(1), 1–17, doi: 10.1002/(SICI)1099-0771(200001/03)13:1<1::AID-BDM333>3.0.CO;2-S.
Goel, V., & Dolan, R. J. (2003). Explaining modulation of reasoning by belief. Cognition, 87(1), B11–B22, doi: 10.1016/s0010-0277(02)00185-3.
Hine, D. W., Clarke, K., Marks, A. D. G., & Morgan, M. I. (2019). Feelings about fracking: Using the affect heuristic to understand opposition to coal seam gas production. Risk Analysis, 39(3), 586–598, doi: 10.1111/risa.13168.
Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, fast and slow. New York: MacMillan.
Keller, C., Siegrist, M., & Gutscher, H. (2006). The role of the affect and availability heuristics in risk communication. Risk Analysis, 26(3), 631–639, doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2006.00773.x.
Kralik, J. D., Xu, E. R., Knight, E. J., Khan, S. A., & Levine, W. J. (2012). When less is more: Evolutionary origins of the affect heuristic. PLoS One, 7(10), e46240, doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0046240.
Loewenstein, G. F., & Lerner, J. S. (2003). The role of affect in decision making. In R. J. Davidson, K. R. Scherer, & H. H. Goldsmith (Eds.), Handbook of affective sciences (pp. 619–642). Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Mukherjee, K. (2010). A dual system model of preferences under risk. Psychological Review, 117(1), 243–255, doi: 10.1037/a0017884.
Petracca, E. (2020). Two and a half systems: The sensory-motor system in dual-process judgment and decision-making. Journal of Neuroscience, Psychology, and Economics, 13(1), 1–18.
Scherer, L. D., Shaffer, V. A., Caverly, T., Scherer, A. M., Zikmund-Fisher, B. J., Kullgren, J. T., & Fagerlin, A. (2018). The role of the affect heuristic and cancer anxiety in responding to negative information about medical tests. Psychology & Health, 33(2), 292–312, doi: 10.1080/08870446.2017.1316848.
Schwarz, N., & Clore, G. L. (1988). How do I feel about it? Informative functions of affective states. In K. Fiedler & J. Forgas (Eds.), Affect, cognition, and social behavior (pp. 44–62). Toronto, Canoda: C.J. Hogrefe.
Shan, Y. X., & Yang, L. L. (2017). Fast and frugal heuristics and naturalistic decision making: A review of their commonalities and differences. Thinking & Reasoning, 23(1), 10–32, doi: 10.1080/13546783.2016.1152999.
Skagerlund, K., Forsblad, M., Slovic, P., & V?stfj?ll, D. (2020). The affect heuristic and risk perception-stability across elicitation methods and individual cognitive abilities. Frontiers in Psychology, 11, 970, doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2020.00970.
Slovic, P., Finucane, M. L., Peters, E., & MacGregor, D. G. (2002). The affect heuristic. In T. Gilovich, D. Griffin, & D. Kahneman (Eds.), Heuristics and biases: The psychology of intuitive judgment (pp. 397–420). New York: Cambridge University Press.
Slovic, P., Finucane, M. L., Peters, E., & MacGregor, D. G. (2007). The affect heuristic. European Journal of Operational Research, 177(3), 1333–1352, doi: 10.1016/j.ejor.2005.04.006.
Trujillo, C. A. (2018). The complementary role of affect-based and cognitive heuristics to make decisions under conditions of ambivalence and complexity. PLoS One, 13(11), e0206724, doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0206724.
V?stfj?ll, D., Peters, E., & Slovic, P. (2014). The affect heuristic, mortality salience, and risk: Domain-specific effects of a natural disaster on risk-benefit perception. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology, 55(6), 527–532, doi: 10.1111/sjop.12166.
V?stfj?ll, D., Slovic, P., Burns, W. J., Erlandsson, A., Koppel, L., Asutay, E., .. Tingh?g, G. (2016). The arithmetic of emotion: Integration of incidental and integral affect in judgments and decisions. Frontiers in Psychology, 7, 325, doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2016.00325.
Watson, S. J., Zizzo, D. J., & Fleming, P. (2017). Risk, benefit, and moderators of the affect heuristic in a widespread unlawful activity: Evidence from a survey of unlawful file-sharing behavior. Risk Analysis, 37(6), 1146–1156, doi: 10.1111/risa.12689.
Wu, L., Zeng, S., & Wu, Y. (2018). Affect heuristic and format effect in risk perception. Social Behavior and Personality, 46(8), 1331–1344, doi: 10.2224/sbp.6957.

[1]	WANG Yanli, CHEN Hong. The Development of Sense of Gain Questionnaire Among Urban Community Residents [J]. Studies of Psychology and Behavior, 2021, 19(5): 665-670.
[2]	Wang Qingchun；Yin Guo′en；Zhang Shanxia；Yao Shujun. RISKY CHOICE FRAMING EFFECTS IN TEEN-AGERS′ DECISION-MAKING [J]. , 2011, 9(4): 268-272.
[3]	Wo Jianzhong,Sun Huiming. THE CONSTRUCTION OF ADOLESCENCE′S ATTRIBUTIONAL STYLE QUESTIONNAIRE [J]. Studies of Psychology and Behavior, 2006, 4(2): 90-94.