Abstract: The present study aimed at investigating whether the influence of the indirect self-relevance hindsight bias, and the strategies to reduce hindsight bias in mock judges′ decision-making. A 3(debiasing strategy: hindsight group, alternative strategy and instructing strategy)× 3(indirect relevancy: irrelevancy, positive indirect relevancy and negative indirect relevancy)between-subjects design was adopted in the experiment. This experiment investigated the effect of hindsight bias with homemade questionaries of two different kinds of legal cases. The results suggested that compared with positive indirect relevancy and irrelevancy, more mock judges made legal decision to judge the existence of the fault of defendants′ actions in both legal cases, and assessed significantly higher value of severity of the fault in negative indirect relevancy. In mock judges′ decisions, the indirect self-relevance made hindsight bias to impact the admition of defendant′s faults, differently. Mean while, both stratedies were able to reduce hindsight bias in mock judges′ decision-making.

Key words: legal decision-making, hindsight bias, self-relevance, debiasing strategy

摘要： 考察法律决策中案件自我相关对后见偏差的影响以及减少后见效应的策略。实验采用3（有无策略：后见组、分散注意组、指导组）×3（间接相关：无相关、积极相关、消极相关）两因素被试间实验设计,采用自编两个案例及问卷测查法律决策中的后见效应。实验结果发现,与积极相关和无相关的决策结果相比,在消极相关情境下更多的模拟法官认为法律案件中被告的行为存在过错,且所评定的过错严重程度更高。在法律决策中,案件的间接自我相关性会使后见效应对于被告过错的认定产生不同的影响。同时,两种策略都能够有效减少法律决策中的后见偏差。

关键词: 法律决策, 后见偏差, 自我相关, 消减策略