高中生未来职业规划的发展趋势：基于潜变量增长模型的分析

doi:10.12139/j.1672-0628.2025.01.015

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为揭示高中生未来职业规划发展趋势，探究公正世界信念的影响，通过2年共5次问卷调查，对1646名高中生进行测试。潜变量增长模型分析发现：(1)高中生未来职业探索的发展趋势呈两阶段性，即先下降后增长；(2)高中生未来职业投入的发展趋势可分为2个亚组，高投入下降组和低投入增长组；(3)一般公正世界信念可以预测高中生未来职业探索的发展速率，个人公正世界信念可以预测高中生未来职业投入的发展趋势。研究结果揭示了公正世界信念对高中生未来职业规划发展轨迹的预测作用，验证了公正世界信念理论，对高中职业规划教育具有重要启示。

关键词: 未来职业规划, 潜变量增长模型, 发展趋势, 高中生, 公正世界信念

Abstract:

The present research employed a longitudinal, five-wave design to examine the developmental trajectories of future occupation planning. Furthermore, the current research examined the influence of just world belief. The sample comprised 1646 high school students, who were followed up for two years from their first to third year of high school. The just world belief was initially assessed at Time 1, and future occupation planning was evaluated from Time 1 to Time 5. The results of the unconditional latent growth model indicated that the high school student’s future occupation commitment was heterogeneous, with both decline and rise groups. Furthermore, the future occupation exploration among high school students exhibited a piecewise trend. A significant decline was observed during the first and second years of high school, while a significant increase was observed during the second and third years of high school. The results of the conditional latent growth model demonstrated that: 1) personal just world belief could predict the subgroup of future occupation commitment development trajectories among high school students; 2) general just world belief could both predict the initial levels and the rates of development of future occupation exploration among high school students. The present study has revealed the developmental trajectories of future occupation planning among high school students. The findings indicate that the just world belief plays an important role in the development of future occupation planning among high school students, which support the just world theory.

Key words: future occupation planning, latent growth model, developmental trajectory, high school student, just world belief

吴鹏, 王宇亮, 蒋星雨. 高中生未来职业规划的发展趋势：基于潜变量增长模型的分析[J]. 心理与行为研究, 2025, 23(1): 115-122.

Peng WU, Yuliang WANG, Xingyu JIANG. The Developmental Trajectories of Future Occupation Planning Among Chinese High School Students: A Latent Growth Model[J]. Studies of Psychology and Behavior, 2025, 23(1): 115-122.

图/表 6

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变量	M±SD	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11
1.T1未来职业探索	3.10±0.53
2.T2未来职业探索	3.08±0.52	0.06*
3.T3未来职业探索	3.02±0.71	0.07**	0.29***
4.T4未来职业探索	3.11±0.70	0.27***	0.19***	0.34***
5.T5未来职业探索	3.18±0.62	0.08*	0.19***	0.26***	0.30***
6.T1未来职业投入	3.24±0.69	0.04	0.15***	0.03	−0.01	0.03
7.T2未来职业投入	3.15±0.87	0.03	0.08**	0.14***	0.05*	0.06	0.37***
8.T3未来职业投入	3.43±0.66	0.12***	0.06**	0.15***	0.23***	0.14***	0.07*	−0.01
9.T4未来职业投入	3.45±0.49	0.10***	0.11***	0.14***	0.14***	0.34***	0.01	−0.02	0.24**
10.T5未来职业投入	3.37±0.60	0.02	0.10***	0.04	0.03	0.08**	0.41***	0.01	−0.04	0.01
11.个人公正世界信念	3.67±0.75	0.06*	0.02	0.12***	0.22***	0.22***	0.02	0.06*	0.23***	0.13***	0.02
12.一般公正世界信念	3.89±0.79	0.03	0.06*	0.17***	0.14***	0.08**	−0.01	0.07**	0.08**	0.10***	−0.01	0.30***

变量	M±SD	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11
1.T1未来职业探索	3.10±0.53
2.T2未来职业探索	3.08±0.52	0.06*
3.T3未来职业探索	3.02±0.71	0.07**	0.29***
4.T4未来职业探索	3.11±0.70	0.27***	0.19***	0.34***
5.T5未来职业探索	3.18±0.62	0.08*	0.19***	0.26***	0.30***
6.T1未来职业投入	3.24±0.69	0.04	0.15***	0.03	−0.01	0.03
7.T2未来职业投入	3.15±0.87	0.03	0.08**	0.14***	0.05*	0.06	0.37***
8.T3未来职业投入	3.43±0.66	0.12***	0.06**	0.15***	0.23***	0.14***	0.07*	−0.01
9.T4未来职业投入	3.45±0.49	0.10***	0.11***	0.14***	0.14***	0.34***	0.01	−0.02	0.24**
10.T5未来职业投入	3.37±0.60	0.02	0.10***	0.04	0.03	0.08**	0.41***	0.01	−0.04	0.01
11.个人公正世界信念	3.67±0.75	0.06*	0.02	0.12***	0.22***	0.22***	0.02	0.06*	0.23***	0.13***	0.02
12.一般公正世界信念	3.89±0.79	0.03	0.06*	0.17***	0.14***	0.08**	−0.01	0.07**	0.08**	0.10***	−0.01	0.30***

	估计值	SE	p
截距(I)	3.11	0.01	<0.001
斜率1(S₁)	−0.04	0.01	<0.001
斜率2(S₂)	0.07	0.01	<0.001

	估计值	SE	p
截距(I)	3.11	0.01	<0.001
斜率1(S₁)	−0.04	0.01	<0.001
斜率2(S₂)	0.07	0.01	<0.001

类别	AIC	BIC	aBIC	Entropy	LMRT	BLRT	各亚组人数占比(%)
1	16512.89	16567.13	16535.36
2	16186.52	16257.04	16215.74	0.90	318.08***	332.36***	79.59/20.41
3	16160.71	16247.50	16196.67	0.90	30.44	31.81*	15.99/80.97/3.04
4	16148.97	16252.03	16191.67	0.91	16.98	17.75	19.27/0.48/0.95/79.30