Abstract: This research was adopted 2(WM capacity: high or low)×2(context: predicting or control)×2(target: inferential or non-predictable)×3(grade: grade two in junior high school, grade two in senior high school, grade two in college)mixed designs. There were 10 high working memory capacity and 10 low working memory capacity participants in each grade. Using ASL 504 model eye-tracker system, we explored the mechanism of high predictive inference. The results were as following: 1)predictivity inferences could generated during reading, but with some delay. The mechanism of predictivity inferences supported constructionist theory. 2)The participants with high working memory capacity could shorten the time course of predictivity inferences. 3)There were developmental processes of predictivity inferences could generated during reading, namely,the capacity of predictivity inferences were increased from grade two in junior middle school to grade two in senior high school, but after the senior high school, the capacity of predictivity inferences were not improved.

Key words: adolescent, predictive inferences, working memory capacity, eye movement

摘要： 本研究采用2（工作记忆容量：高、低）×2（语境：高预期性、低预期性）×2（靶词：一致性、不一致性）×3（年级：初中二年级、高中二年级、大学二年级）的实验设计,每个年级由高、低容量工作记忆各10人组成。用眼动仪探讨在阅读高预期材料时预期推理产生的心理机制。结果发现：（1）在阅读过程中,预期推理是延时产生的,结果支持建构主义理论;（2）在阅读过程中,被试的工作记忆容量越高,他们产生预期推理的可能性也就越大;（3）在阅读过程中,预期推理的产生有一个发展过程,具体为初中阶段还处于发展的状态,并一直延续到高中阶段,高中阶段之后预期推理能力的发展已经趋于平缓。

关键词: 青少年, 预期推理, 工作记忆, 眼动